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12/22/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles, the NFC East title is not going to be sitting under the tree Christmas morning. The clubs, who will meet at Texas Stadium Monday evening, will have to engage in a little holiday overtime to keep their hopes of a division crown intact.
Dallas, which has won four of its last five including an important 38-28 win in Atlanta last Saturday night, needs only a victory on Monday to claim its first NFC East title since 1998. The Cowboys own a one-game advantage over the Eagles in the division, and remain in the hunt for the No. 2 seed in the NFC and the first-round postseason bye it would bring.
Philadelphia, meanwhile, has been one of the league's biggest second-half surprises, resuscitating a season that looked all but lost when quarterback Donovan McNabb was ruled out for the year due to a torn ACL suffered against the Titans on Nov. 19th. The Eagles have managed to go 3-1 in McNabb's stead, scoring their most impressive victory during that stretch by going to the Meadowlands and stunning the Giants, 36-22, last week.
Andy Reid's team defeated Dallas by a 38-24 count on Oct. 8th, and a second win over the Cowboys would give the Eagles the tie-breaker advantage should the two squads finish knotted in the standings. Philly will clinch at least a Wild Card berth with a win on Monday, while Dallas has already secured its first postseason trip since 2003.
Two different quarterbacks, McNabb and Dallas' Drew Bledsoe, started in the first 2006 matchup between the squads. Garcia's counterpart on Sunday will be Cowboys signal-caller Tony Romo, who was named to the NFC Pro Bowl squad on Tuesday after fashioning a 6-2 record in his first half-season as a starter.
SERIES HISTORY
The Cowboys hold a 51-40 advantage in their all-time regular season series with the Eagles, but as mentioned, were 38-24 road losers when the teams met in Week 5. Dallas swept last season's home-and-home, including a 33-10 rout of Philly at Texas Stadium in Week 5. Philadelphia has won four of the previous five games held in Big D, including a 49-21 blowout in 2004.
In addition to their regular season advantage, the Cowboys have a 2-1 edge in the postseason series. The Eagles were 20-7 winners in the 1980 NFC Championship, while Dallas won NFC Divisional Playoff games over Philadelphia following the 1992 and 1995 seasons.
Reid has a career record of 10-5 against the Cowboys, and is 4-3 all-time against Dallas' Bill Parcells. Parcells has a 12-11 mark against Philadelphia in his career, including 3-4 since coming to the Cowboys in 2003.
EAGLES OFFENSE VS. COWBOYS DEFENSE
Garcia (1042 passing yards, 9 TD, 1 INT) comes into Monday's game with a sterling 96.3 passer rating, a surprising development indeed for a quarterback that had not broken 90 in a single season since playing for the 49ers in 2001. Garcia needs just two more touchdown passes to post his best yearly total since departing San Francisco following the 2003 campaign. The veteran was 19- of-28 for 237 yards with a touchdown, an interception, and a lost fumble in the win over the Giants. The 36-year-old Garcia has spread the ball equally to a number of capable targets, including running back Brian Westbrook (74 receptions, 4 TD), tight end L.J. Smith (48 receptions, 5 TD), and wideouts Reggie Brown (43 receptions, 8 TD) and Donte' Stallworth (35 receptions, 5 TD). Brown was the pass-catching star against the Giants, hauling in four passes for 77 yards including a 19-yard fourth-quarter touchdown catch that put the Eagles ahead to stay. Smith added 54 yards on four grabs, a total that does not include his two-point conversion catch following the Brown TD. Rookie Hank Baskett (15 receptions, 1 TD) had three receptions for 112 yards and a touchdown in the last meeting against Dallas, by far his most productive outing of the season to date. The Philly line has surrendered 26 sacks on the year, but just four of those have been absorbed by Garcia.
Garcia should be able to make some hay downfield against a Dallas secondary that has been the weak link in the Cowboys' defensive chain of late. One week after allowing the Saints' Drew Brees to gut them for 384 yards and five touchdown passes, Michael Vick and at Atlanta passing attack ranked dead last in the league managed to throw four more touchdown passes against America's Team last week. The Cowboys did manage a pair of interceptions versus Atlanta, with Pro Bowl-bound outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (57 tackles, 7.5 sacks, 1 INT) stepping in front of Vick's first pass of the second quarter and returning it 41 yards for a Dallas touchdown, and safety Pat Watkins (29 tackles, 2 INT) intercepting backup Matt Schaub's deep ball attempt in the closing seconds. Strong safety Roy Williams (54 tackles, 5 INT), who was perhaps unjustifiably named to the Pro Bowl squad earlier in the week, finished with six tackles against the Falcons. Dallas had four sacks in Atlanta, including the first one-and-a-half in the career of rookie outside linebacker Bobby Carpenter (12 tackles). The Cowboys are 21st in the NFL against the pass (214.8 yards per game).
Westbrook (1092 rushing yards, 7 TD) was overlooked for Pro Bowl honors when the NFC team was announced Tuesday, a borderline-criminal oversight in light of the running back's impact on his team. Westbrook went over the 1,000-yard rushing mark for the first time in his career last week, when he rushed 19 times for 97 yards, added five receptions for 40 yards out of the backfield, and scored a pair of touchdowns. Among NFL players with more than 150 rushing attempts, Westbrook's 5.1 yards per carry rank behind only San Francisco's Frank Gore (5.5) and probable NFL MVP LaDainian Tomlinson (5.2). His 74 catches are third among league running backs behind the Saints' Reggie Bush (84) and Rams' Steven Jackson (82). Offering a solid change of pace for the Eagles is Correll Buckhalter (306 rushing yards, 23 receptions, 2 TD), who carried eight times for 48 yards and scored his first rushing touchdown since 2003 in the Giants game. Philadelphia is 11th in the league in rushing offense (124.1 yards per game), and fifth in yards per carry (4.9).
The Cowboys have done a generally good job against the run this season, ranking seventh in NFL rushing defense (97.9 yards per game) and limiting Westbrook to 33 rushing yards on 11 attempts when the teams met back in October. Last Saturday, Dallas faced Atlanta's top-ranked running game and held the Falcons well below their average with just 127 ground yards on the night. Inside linebacker Akin Ayodele (75 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) led the charge with five stops and a fumble recovery, though the recovery was coughed right back up to the Falcons. Inside linebackers Bradie James (84 tackles, 1 INT) and Ayodele are 1-2 on the team in tackles as Week 16 begins. Up front, nose tackle Jason Ferguson (34 tackles) has set the linebackers up for success, and ends Marcus Spears (41 tackles, 1 sack) and Kenyon Coleman (26 tackles, 3 sacks) have had their moments as well. Coleman was particularly involved in the Atlanta win, coming up with five tackles and notching his third sack of the season.
COWBOYS OFFENSE VS. EAGLES DEFENSE
Though some were surprised that Romo (2440 passing yards, 16 TD, 10 INT) was named to the Pro Bowl in light of his limited experience as the Cowboys' signal-caller, it is impossible to minimize the impact he has had on his team's run to the playoffs. The quarterback has a strong 98.4 passer rating as Week 16 begins, is completing a robust 66.3 percent of his passes, and is within striking distance of compiling 3,000 passing yards in what amounts to less than three-quarters of a season. Romo has worked will with starting wideouts Terrell Owens (77 receptions, 11 TD) and Terry Glenn (63 receptions, 6 TD), and has also gotten tight end Jason Witten (54 receptions, 1 TD) involved a great deal. Owens took over the NFL lead in touchdown passes against Atlanta last week, catching five passes for 69 yards and two touchdowns, though his night was overshadowed by a spitting incident involving Falcons cornerback DeAngelo Hall. Owens was limited to three catches for 45 yards when he faced his former team for the first time in Week 5. Glenn and Witten both had five receptions last week, combining for 152 yards on those 10 grabs. Glenn is 79 yards shy of posting the first back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons of his career. The Achilles heel in the Dallas offense is likely the offensive line, which has allowed 30 sacks, including 14 of Romo.
The Eagles' defensive strength begins with its secondary, where free safety Brian Dawkins (87 tackles, 3 INT, 1 sack) and cornerback Lito Sheppard (27 tackles, 5 INT) were both named to the Pro Bowl this past week. Dawkins comes off one of the best games of his illustrious 11-year career. The Clemson product forced a Brandon Jacobs fumble in Eagles territory in the first half, came back on the next drive and intercepted an Eli Manning pass to set up a Philadelphia touchdown, and in the fourth quarter stripped New York end Visanthe Shiancoe on a pass play, with Sheppard recovering the loose ball. Sheppard will be seeking a repeat performance of his first game against Dallas, when he picked off a fourth-quarter Cowboys pass in the end zone, returning it 102 yards for a game-sealing touchdown. Philly has mostly struggled to apply pressure during the second half of the year, though top pass rusher Trent Cole (60 tackles, 8 sacks, 1 INT) did make a huge impact with an interception off a tipped Eli Manning pass in the closing stages of last week's game, which he promptly returned for a 19-yard touchdown to sew up the Eagles win. The Birds are 12th in the league against the pass (195 yards per game).
Though it was Julius Jones (1019 rushing yards, 4 TD) that became Dallas' first 1,000-yard rusher since Emmitt Smith last Saturday, the Cowboys' most productive back in recent weeks has been second-year-pro Marion Barber III (636 rushing yards, 18 receptions, 15 TD). Barber has scored multiple touchdowns in four of his past five games, reaching the end zone twice on an 11-carry, 69-yard night against Atlanta last week. By contrast, Jones was held to 26 yards on 13 totes versus the Falcons, and perhaps the Notre Dame product's only memorable play of the second half of the season was his 77-yard touchdown run that opened the scoring in an eventual blowout loss to the Saints in Week 14. That ranks as the only game in Jones' last nine where he has averaged better than four yards per carry. Jones carried 26 times for 100 yards against the Eagles in Week 5. Dallas is 10th in the league in rushing offense (128.2 yards per game).
Philadelphia is mostly deserving of its reputation of being soft against the run, though the league's 28th-ranked rushing defense (138.6 yards per game) did a nice job against the Giants' tandem of Tiki Barber and Brandon Jacobs last Sunday. The duo totaled 88 yards on 22 combined carries with a pair of touchdowns, with neither breaking off a run of longer than 14 yards. Members of the embattled front seven who performed well included rookie linebacker Omar Gaither (45 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT), who posted 10 tackles and a sack from his outside position, and defensive tackle Darwin Walker (33 tackles, 5 sacks, 1 INT), who contributed five stops to the proceedings. Middle linebacker Jeremiah Trotter (107 tackles, 1 INT), who came up with four tackles against the G-Men, continues to lead the Eagles in that category.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
One has to applaud the Eagles' effort of late, particularly its road takedown of the Giants last week, but a third consecutive road win is going to be a tall order indeed for Garcia and company. Unlike the Giants, the Cowboys have a crisp, multi-pronged offensive attack that will keep the still-suspect Eagles "D" guessing for most of the evening. And though Dallas has its defensive flaws, particularly in the secondary, Philadelphia won't threaten the Cowboys downfield enough to make Dallas pay. Look for America's Team to jump out to an early lead, keep the Eagles at arm's length thereafter, and celebrate with an NFC East title on Christmas night.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Cowboys 26, Eagles 17
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Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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