Ducks to open crucial homestand with visit from Habs

Hockey Betting Lines

03/07/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Anaheim Ducks haven't helped their cause for inclusion in the playoffs with their performance following the Olympic break. They'll have a chance to improve those chances with a critical seven-game homestand that starts up with tonight's clash with the Montreal Canadiens.

Anaheim has lost its first two tests since returning from the NHL's stoppage for the Vancouver Games, following up a 4-3 home setback to Colorado on Tuesday with last night's shutout defeat at fellow Pacific Division member Phoenix. The Coyotes' Ilya Bryzgalov stopped all 32 shots that came his way in the 4-0 decision, the Russian goaltender's seventh whitewash of the season.

Jonas Hiller saved just 26-of-30 chances for Anaheim, which now finds itself tied for 12th place in the Western Conference standings and five points back of Detroit for the eighth and last postseason seed.

"I think that everybody on this team needs to do more," said Anaheim head coach Randy Carlyle after Saturday's loss. "This is a team game and we win and lose as a team."

The Ducks sorely need to take advantage of this upcoming stretch of games at the Honda Center, where the club had been playing extremely well prior to the Olympic hiatus. Anaheim had ripped off a franchise-record 11 consecutive victories on home ice before Tuesday's loss to the Avalanche and are a strong 19-9-2 as the host this season.

They've also had good success when facing the Canadiens in recent years. The Ducks have won their last three matchups against tonight's opponent, with Montreal's latest triumph in the series coming at the Honda Center on March 8, 2004. The Habs have fallen in three of their last four visits to Anaheim.

Montreal has fared pretty well on its current road trip, though, improving to 2-1-0 on the four-game trek after Saturday's 4-2 verdict over Los Angeles. The win gave the Canadiens sole possession of eighth place in the Eastern Conference, and they trail rival Boston by only one point for the No. 7 spot.

Brian Gionta gave Montreal a quick lead when he scored just 22 seconds into the game, and the diminutive winger added an assist on Benoit Pouliot's tally that put the Canadiens up 3-1 early in the third period.

"Anytime you can jump on a team like that early on, those things kind of set the tone for the game," Gionta said. "We were able to do it again in the third [period]. I think we were much more confident [Saturday]. I think we just need to be a little more aggressive, stick with our game plan and not sit back."

Dominic Moore added a shorthanded goal and Scott Gomez notched a pair of assists for Montreal, which will play its next three games at home following tonight's tilt.

The Canadiens will be without Maxim Lapierre for a second straight night. The center began serving a four-game suspension on Saturday for injuring San Jose's Scott Nichol with a late hit in Thursday's 3-2 loss to the Sharks.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.